BALTIMORE – From hunter to hunter to hunted.
Despite his narrow victory at 18-1 in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, Mystik Dan was likely going to play the underdog role again in Saturday’s 149th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. That all changed Wednesday morning, when news broke that Muth, who had beaten Mystik Dan seven weeks ago in the Arkansas Derby but was not permitted to run in the Kentucky Derby, had to scratch from the Preakness due to illness.
Now, the focus of Saturday’s $2 million Preakness is squarely on Mystik Dan, who as the expected favorite will face seven rivals – only two of whom he defeated two weeks ago in the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Kenny McPeek, trainer of Mystik Dan, doesn’t believe there’s any more pressure on him, his horse, or jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. now that expectations have risen.
“Pressure’s self-inflicted, I’m going to enjoy this,” McPeek said Thursday morning, his first in Baltimore. “There’s nothing I can do but make sure he’s doing right. I don’t see Brian putting any unnecessary pressure on himself.”
In Louisville, Hernandez gave Mystik Dan a brilliant ride, guiding his horse through a narrow opening both on the first turn, to gain an inside position just behind the speed, and then again at the quarter pole, to save the necessary ground to eke out a nose victory over the wide-rallying Sierra Leone, who was nose better than Forever Young, those two having exchanged body blows in the lane.
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As good as Mystik Dan was in the Kentucky Derby, arguably his most visually impressive victory was his eight-length romp in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February. That race was run over a sloppy track, conditions that could be in play Saturday. The National Weather Service calls for showers starting after 2 p.m. with as much as a quarter of an inch of rain falling by nightfall. Post time for the Preakness is 7:01 p.m.
“I don’t think he needs a muddy track,” McPeek said.
Wet or dry, McPeek was confident going into the Kentucky Derby. He waited a week after the race to commit Mystik Dan to the Preakness, doing some basic tests – an endoscopic examination of the horse’s throat and routine blood work – to make sure his horse was right. All tests indicate he is just fine.
“He seems to be thriving still, I’m very confident again,” McPeek said.
In 149 previous runnings of the Preakness – the race was run in two divisions in 1918 – the favorite has won 73 times (49 percent), though the last favorite to win the race was Justify in 2018.
While Mystik Dan will clearly be favored in the Preakness, the role of second choice is less defined.
It could very well be Tuscan Gold, one of five horses in this field who didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby and now come into this race fresh. The last four winners of the Preakness – National Treasure, Early Voting, Rombauer, and the filly Swiss Skydiver – did not run in the Kentucky Derby.
Tuscan Gold is trained by Chad Brown, who won this race in 2017 with Cloud Computing and 2022 with Early Voting, horses making their fourth career start like Tuscan Gold is doing. Tuscan Gold ran third in the Louisiana Derby on March 23, a 1 3/16-mile race – the same distance as the Preakness – where Brown thought a wide trip compromised his horse’s chances.
“This horse is very well bred. He’s proven he can get the mile and three-sixteenths because he had a very wide trip” in Louisiana, Brown said. “I think he’s custom made for that race. He’s got to overcome a layoff and some inexperience. Other than that, the horse is one of the main contenders.”
Tyler Gaffalione, who won the 2019 Preakness on War of Will, has the call on Tuscan Gold.
In Muth, Bob Baffert seemed to have a terrific opportunity to win a record-extending ninth Preakness. Though Muth is out, Baffert will still have a chance with the lesser-regarded Imagination, who comes out of a runner-up finish to Stronghold in the Santa Anita Derby. Though Baffert said he believes Imagination is better with a target, a more likely scenario Saturday is Imagination will be on the lead under Frankie Dettori.
“Every race he’s improving and I think distance is not going to be a problem for him,” Baffert said.
Aside from Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom (fourth) and Just Steel (17th) are the only other runners from the Kentucky Derby to run back in the Preakness. Catching Freedom, who won the Louisiana Derby, had a clean trip in the Kentucky Derby, actually following Mystik Dan through an opening along the rail in the stretch, but falling 1 3/4 lengths short at the wire.
Brad Cox, trainer of Catching Freedom, was happy enough with how his horse was doing in the week following the Derby to run him back in the Preakness, something he has not done with any of his previous Derby starters.
On Thursday morning, Catching Freedom had an eye-catching gallop over Pimlico’s main track, which was still muddy from Tuesday rains.
“He’s touting himself that he’s feeling well, energy level is where it needs to be,” Cox said. “If we get a good trip he’s going to be right there. I think he’s set up for a big run.”
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a six-time Preakness winner, sends out both Just Steel and Pat Day Mile winner Seize the Grey. Lukas felt Just Steel was compromised in the Derby by being part of a fast early pace. He does not want to see that happen again, though he will likely be close under Joel Rosario.
“I’d like to see him lapped on or in touch with the race,” Lukas said. “I feel comfortable that he’ll be in a position where at the top of the stretch, if he can run and he is good enough, he’ll probably lay it down for us.”
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Seize the Grey was a pace-pressing winner of the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He is by Arrogate, which gives Lukas some confidence he can handle stretching out to 1 3/16 miles around two turns.
“He’s got a pedigree that says he will go the extra distance,” Lukas said. “We were forced into the Pat Day Mile because we didn’t have the points [to get into the Derby]. The Pat Day Mile in hindsight set us up to be very effective here.”
Oxbow, in 2013, gave Lukas his sixth Preakness victory at odds of 15-1, making him the fifth-longest shot in the history of the race to win. Uncle Heavy and Mugatu figure to be longer odds than that to pull off a Preakness upset.
Uncle Heavy won the Grade 3 Withers – in the slop – before finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial. His trainer, Butch Reid, believes distance plays in Uncle Heavy’s favor, and he figures to be running late under Irad Ortiz Jr., who is in search of his first Preakness victory in what will be his sixth mount in the race.
Mugatu, who is just 1 for 12 and is coming out of a fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, is likely to be the longest shot on the board. He would likely rival Master Derby ($48.80) as the highest-priced winner in Preakness history. Joe Bravo rides Mugatu for trainer Jeff Engler.
The Preakness goes as race 13 on a 14-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. and has nine stakes. The Preakness will be shown on NBC, which begins its broadcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Coverage of the earlier races starts on CNBC at 1:30 p.m. and will be streamed on Peaco*ck.
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