ST. PETERSBURG — Over the first two-plus months of play, the Rays have had a lot go wrong and done just enough right to break even, with a 31-31 record, and a nice, round 100 games to go.
To mark that point of their season, here are 62 things we know so far:
• To win 100 games, the Rays have to go 69-31 the rest of the way
• To win 90, 59-41
• To win 86, the lowest number that made or would have made the playoffs in a three wild-card format the last five full seasons, 55-45
• Related: They have the toughest remaining schedule in the majors
• They have been very average, spending 14 days at .500 (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 5-5, 6-6, 12-12, 13-13, 18-18, 19-19, 20-20, 21-21, 22-22, 25-25, 31-31)
• And the rest of the time close, with 30 days under (all within four games of .500) and 18 over (with a max of three), with a season long win streak of five and losses of six
• Of note: May 1 was the first time they’d been four games under .500 (14-18) since June 2018
• Also of note: Their opening day payroll of $96 million was by far the largest in franchise history
• For that, they’re on pace for their worst record since 2017
• One ongoing concern: Typically among the leaders, they rank 25th in run differential at (minus-47)
• Also of note: They are 9-16 against teams .500 or better, 22-15 against teams under .500
• Related: They may be lucky to be 31-31. Using Bill James’ Pythagorean formula based on runs scored and allowed, they project to 26-36
• Helpful but maybe not sustainable: their majors-best 22-9 record in games decided by two or fewer runs and 12-4 mark in one-run games
• Also: 17 come-from-behind wins
• Their chances to make the playoffs are 26.2% per fangraphs.com and 5.7% per baseball-reference.com
• Defense continues to be an issue, as they rank 26th in defensive runs saved at minus-20, with rightfield the only position not in the negative
• Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been their best player statistically, with a .298 average, 10 homers, 37 RBIs, an .881 OPS and 1.8 WAR (per baseball-reference.com), which is only a slight surprise
• Also good: starter Zack Littell
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Explore all your options• Reliever Garrett Cleavinger
• Reliever Jason Adam
• New outfielder/infielder Richie Palacios
• New infielder Jose Caballero
• New starter Ryan Pepiot
• Outfielder Randy Arozarena, though looking better this past week, has been their worst, with a .169 average, eight HRs, 19 RBIs, a .604 OPS and a -0.4 WAR, which has been somewhat of a shock
• Also of note: Arozarena has one multi-hit game since March 30
• Others who have struggled, at least at times: outfielder/DH Harold Ramirez
• First baseman Yandy Diaz, though he has been warming
• Second baseman Brandon Lowe, though he also has been warming
• Reliever Chris Devenski
• Catcher Alex Jackson (who at least snapped his 0-for-30 skid)
• Starter Aaron Civale
• Since-demoted starter/bulk reliever Tyler Alexander
• 16 Rays have been on the injured list (Josh Lowe twice), including 11 pitchers (eight hurt this year)
• The Rays have stolen an American League-most 61 bases but been caught a majors-most 28 times
• Related: Caballero leads the AL with 21 steals and the majors in being caught eight times
• Also related: The Rays have made 22 other outs on the bases (not counting caught stealing, pickoffs or force plays), tied for fourth-most in the majors
• Plus: Rays pitchers have allowed 52 steals, matching the fifth-most in the majors
• Similarly, the Rays have given up the third-most homers in the majors (79) but hit the second-fewest (48)
• Related: Alexander allowed 13, second-most in the majors, Civale 11.
• Also related: The Yankees trio of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton has hit 52 homers
• Among things the Rays haven’t done yet: hit back-to-back homers.
• Among things they haven’t done much: only two players have had multi-homer games — Jose Siri and … (since-demoted) Rene Pinto
• Another they haven’t done much recently: get production from the catchers, who have a combined two extra-base hits and four RBIs since May 1
• Something else they haven’t done much recently: Ryan Pepiot’s win Tuesday was their first by a starter since May 17.
• Related: Pepiot and Cleavinger share the team lead with four wins
• Also: Eight different pitchers have at least one of their 20 saves (which match the third-most in the majors)
• Eight have at least one of their 12 blown saves (which match the fourth-most)
• Showing little has come easy, Wednesday’s win was just their 11th in which they didn’t trail at some point
• Since coming off the injured list May 11, closer Pete Fairbanks has been dominant, pitching 12 times without allowing an earned run (one unearned) and retiring 35 of 44 batters
• A hot start didn’t last for Jonny DeLuca, who is now hitting .171 and in an 0-for-25 slump
• Nor for Ben Rortvedt, down to .243 after going 5-for-his-last-47
• Diaz’s lower-than-expected production may be a matter, at least in part, of bad luck; he has hit a majors-most 47 balls at 100 mph that were outs
• Not so much for Harold Ramirez, whose hard-hit numbers are way down; 40 of his 44 hits are singles
• The Rays have done all right facing lefty starters, with an 11-5 record and six straight wins
• With their top lefty hitters out much of the first two months, they are 20-26 vs. righties
• Infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario has quietly provided the offensive boost the Rays expected, hitting .328 with a .793 OPS vs. lefties and .302/.740 overall.
• After having only five days off in their first 56 days of play, the Rays just had four off in 15. Now they play 19 of the next 20 days
• Those games come against the contending Orioles, Cubs, Braves, Twins and Mariners
• Tropicana Field has not been a home dome advantage. The Rays are 17-18 there, 14-13 on the road
• With Josh Lowe back from the IL and Colin Poche and Taylor Walls likely coming this weekend, they finally will have their full team together
• Having won three straight, five of seven and six of nine, they believe they still have time — and hope. “You’ve got to feel good about how we’ve played here as of late,” manager Kevin Cash said.
• There are 100 games left to find out.
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